Kahneman-ThinkingFastSlow-ajk$2.99# 1,9362,512,psy,eng,20130821,20130926,5,Daniel Kahneman: Thinking - fast and slow ama,http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=node%3D154606011&field-keywords=Thinking+-+fast+and+slow&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cn%3A154606011%2Ck%3AThinking+-+fast+and+slow eng,http://www.amazon.com/gp/cdp/member-reviews/A2VTU64NWS0F1Z?ie=UTF8&display=public 304 2820,h,201310130857@ Contents Introduction 18,2,Introduction 55,b,201310100822 73,3,Origins 183,3,Where We Are Now 238,3,What Comes Next 256,b,201308210321 311,1,Part 1 Two Systems 347,h,201308210721@ 1 The Characters of the Story To 347,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 1 366,3,Two Systems 366,h,System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are of... 439,3,Plot Synopsis hd3:201308210321 Conflict 457,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 2 475,3,Illusions 27 494,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 3 512,3,Useful Fictions 548,3,Speaking of System 1 and System 2 548,2,2 Attention and Effort 567,3,Mental Effort 603,h,inverted V. 622,h,Your use of electricity depends on what you choose to do, whether to light a room or toast a piece of bread. When you turn on a bulb or a toaster, it draws the energy it needs but no more. 640,h,You will find that you have responded to the threat before you became fully conscious of it. 640,h,System 2— from measuring pupils in a wide variety of tasks. 640,h,As you become skilled in a task, its demand for energy diminishes. Studies 640,h,Talent has similar effects. Highly intelligent individuals need less effort to solve the same problems, as indicated by both pupil size and brain activity. 640,h,In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. 658,h,Effort is required to maintain simultaneously in memory several ideas that require separate actions, or that need to be combined according to a rule —rehearsing your shopping list as you enter the supermarket, choosing between the fish and the veal a... 676,h,The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast. 695,h,We normally avoid mental overload by dividing our tasks into multiple easy steps, committing intermediate results to long-term memory or to paper rather than to an easily overloaded working memory. We cover long distances by taking our time and condu... 695,3,Speaking of Attention and Effort 695,b,20130822 713,2,3 The Lazy Controller I 713,h,You make many small decisions as you drive your car, absorb some information as you read the newspaper, and conduct routine exchanges of pleasantries with a spouse or a colleague, all with little effort and no strain. Just like a stroll. 731,h,I did the best thinking of my life on leisurely walks with Amos. 731,h,At the highest speed I can sustain on the hills, about 14 minutes for a mile, I do not even try to think of anything else. 750,3,The Busy and Depleted System 2 750,h,People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations. 804,h,tired and hungry judges tend to fall back on the easier default position of denying requests for parole. Both fatigue and hunger probably play a role. 804,3,The Lazy System 2 804,b,201308210322 859,3,Intelligence, Control, Rationality 896,3,Speaking of Control 896,b,20130822 914,2,4 The Associative Machine To 932,h,you think with your body, not only with your brain. 951,3,The Marvels of Priming 969,h,201308210322@ hgi:ideomotor effect. 1006,3,Primes That Guide Us 1042,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 4 1060,3,Speaking of Priming 1060,b,20130823 1079,2,5 Cognitive Ease Whenever 1097,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 5. Causes and Consequences of Cognitive Ease 1097,3,Illusions of Remembering 1115,3,Illusions of Truth 1134,3,How to Write a Persuasive Message 1170,3,Strain and Effort 1188,3,The Pleasure of Cognitive Ease 1225,3,Ease, Mood, and Intuition 1262,w,Note gullibility, 1280,3,Speaking of Cognitive Ease 1280,b,20130824 1298,2,6 Norms, Surprises, and Causes The 1298,3,Assessing Normality 1353,3,Seeing Causes and Intentions 1426,3,Speaking of Norms and Causes 1426,b,20130825 1444,2,7 A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 1444,h,Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stake... 1444,3,Neglect of Ambiguity and Suppression of Doubt 1444,h,201309070831@ fig:Kopioitu leikepoydalle Figure 6 1463,b,201309070831 1463,b,201308210322 1463,3,A Bias to Believe and Confirm 1499,3,Exaggerated Emotional Coherence (Halo Effect) 1536,h,To derive the most useful information from multiple sources of evidence, you should always try to make these sources independent of each other. 1554,h,Eliminating redundancy from your sources of information is always a good idea. 1554,3,What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) 1572,h,WYSIATI, which stands for what you see is all there is. 1609,3,Speaking of Jumping to Conclusions 1609,h,WYSIATI— what you see is all there is. 1609,b,20130826 1627,2,8 Howjudgments Happen There 1627,h,System 2 receives questions or generates them,h,in either case it directs attention and searches memory to find the answers. System 1 operates differently. It continuously monitors what is going on outside and inside the mind, and continuously generat... 1645,3,Basic Assessments 1664,h,elections in Finland, 1682,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 7 Sets and Prototypes 1682,h,201309070831@ fig:Figure 8 1700,3,Intensity Matching 1737,3,The Mental Shotgun 1737,h,201308210322@ I call this excess computation the mental shotgun. 1755,3,Speaking of Judgment 1755,b,20130828 1773,2,9 Answering an Easier Question A 1773,h,The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. You like or dislike people long before you know much about them; 1773,3,Substituting Questions 1792,h,We asked ourselves how people manage to make judgments of probability without knowing precisely what probability is. 1792,h,How to Solve It,h,'If 1810,b,201309070831@ table 1 1810,h,The heuristic questions provide an off-the-shelf answer to each of the difficult target 1828,3,The 3-D Heuristic 1847,h,the dominant impression of 3-D size dictates the judgment of 2-D size. The illusion is due to a 3-D heuristic. 1847,h,You were not confused about the question, but you were influenced by the answer to a question that you were not asked,h,"How tall are the three people?" 1847,3,The Mood Heuristic for Happiness 1865,h,The results this time were completely different. In this sequence, the correlation between the number of dates and reported happiness was about as high as correlations between psychological measures can get. 1883,3,The Affect Heuristic 1920,3,Characteristics of System 1 1975,1,Part 2 Heuristics and Biases 10 1993,2,10 The Law of Small Numbers 2048,3,The Law of Small Numbers 2066,h,mistake was particularly embarrassing because I taught statistics and knew how to compute the sample size that would reduce the risk of failure to an acceptable level. But I had never chosen a sample size by computation . Like my colleagues, I had tr... 2066,3,A Bias of Confidence Over Doubt 2084,w,WYSIATI 114 2084,h,201309070831@ The law of small numbers is a manifestation of a 2157,3,Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers 2157,b,20130830 2176,2,11 Anchors Amos 2176,h,But they did not ignore it. The average estimates of those who saw 10 and 65 were 25% and 45%, respectively. 2176,h,anchoring effect. 2194,3,Anchoring as Adjustment ,h,Two different mechanisms produce anchoring effects— one for each system. There is a form of anchoring that occurs in a deliberate process of adjustment, an operation of System 2. And there is anchoring that occurs by a priming effect, an automatic manifestation of System 1. Anchoring Kopioitu leikepoydalle 2212,hThe driver and the child both deliberately adjust down, and both fail to adjust enough. 2212,h,People adjust less (stay closer to the anchor) when their mental resources are depleted, either because their meinory is loaded with digits or because they are slightly drunk. Insufficient adjustment is a failure of a weak or lazy System 2. i I 2231,3,Anchoring as Priming Effect 2249,h,In another elegant study in the same vein, participants were asked about the average price of German cars. A high anchor selectively primed the names of luxury brands (Mercedes, Audi), whereas the low anchor primed brands associated with mass-market... 2249,3,The Anchoring Index 2267,h,The anchoring effect is not a laboratory curiosity; it can be just as strong in the real world. In an experiment conducted some years ago. 2267,h,201309070831@ real-estate agents were given an opportunity to assess the value of a house that was actually on the market. They 2285,h,The conclusion is clear,h,anchors do not have their effects because people believe they are informative. 2304,3,Uses and Abuses of Anchors 2322,3,Anchoring and the Two Systems 2322,h,The participants who have been exposed to random or absurd anchors (such as Gandhi's death at age 144) confidently 2340,h,The main moral of 2340,h,However, you should assume that any number that is on the table has had an anchoring effect on you, and if the stakes are high you should mobilize yourself (your System 2) to combat the effect. 2340,3,Speaking of Anchors 2340,b,20130901 2359,2,12 The Science of Availability 2395,3,The Psychology of Availability Kopioitu leikepbydaile 2487,h,201309070831@ Speaking of Availability 2487,h,201309070831@ "Because of the coincidence of two planes crashing last month, she now prefers to take the train . That's silly. The risk hasn't really changed; it is an availability bias." 2487,b,20130902 2505,h,20130902@ 13 Availability, 2505,h,20130902@ Availability, Emotion, and Risk Students 2523,h,201309070831@ Availability and Affect The 2523,w,botulism) 2560,h,201309070831@ The Public and the Experts 2651,3,Speaking of Availability Cascades 2651,b,20130904 2669,2,14 Tom Ws Specialty 2706,h,The task of ranking the nine careers is complex and certainly requires the discipline and sequential organization of which only System 2 is capable. 2706,h,The similarity of an individual to the stereotype of a group is unaffected by the size of the group. Indeed, you could compare the description of Tom to an image of graduate students in library science even if there is no such department at the unive... 2742,h,201309070831@ anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes. 2761,3,The Sins of Representativeness 2761,h,One sin of representativeness is an excessive willingness to predict the occurrence of unlikely (low base-rate) events. Here is an example,h,you see a person reading The New York Times on the New York subway. 2797,b,201309070831 2797,h,wki:Thinking, Fast and Slow - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 2797,h,Kaanna tama sivuTo explain overconfidence, Kahneman introduces the concept he labels What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI). T... Page 153 - WYSIATI. In 2797,3,How to Discipline Intuition 2816,h,This influential modern approach to statistics is named after an English minister of the eighteenth century, the Reverend Thomas Bayes, who is credited with the first major contribution to a large problem,h,the logic of how people should change their mind in the light of evidence. Bayes's 2870,h,The set of feminist bank tellers is wholly included in the set of bank tellers, as every feminist bank teller is a bank teller. Therefore the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller must be lower than the probability of her being a bank tell... 2889,h,we had pitted logic against representativeness, and representativeness had won! 2889,h,In the language of this book, we had observed a failure of System 2,h,our participants had a fair opportunity to detect the relevance of the logical rule, 2889,h,Which alternative is more probable? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. 2907,h,The most representative outcomes combine with the personality description to produce the most coherent stories. The most coherent stories are not necessarily the most probable, but they are plausible, and the notions of coherence, plausibility, and p... 2925,3,Less Is More, Sometimes Even In Joint Evaluation Christopher 3017,3,Speaking of Less is More 3035,2,16 Causes Trump Statistics 3053,h,@ Causal Stereotypes 3090,h,@ Causal Situations 3108,h,@ Can Psychology be Taught? 3181,h,@ Subjects' unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general was matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular. 3181,h,@ There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases. Statistical results with a causal interpretation have a stronger effect on our thinking than noncausal information. 3181,b,20130910 3200,2,17 Regression to the Mean I 3218,3,Talent and Luck 3273,h,201309100100@ Understanding Regression 3273,h,201309100100@ Whether undetected or wrongly explained, the phenomenon of regression is strange to the human mind. So strange, indeed, that it was first identified and understood two hundred years after the theory of gravitation and differential calculus. 3291,h,201309100100@ Regression effects can be found wherever we look, but we do not recognize them for what they are. They hide in plain sight. 3364,h,201309100100@ Speaking of Regression to Mediocrity 3382,h,20130909@ 18 Taming Intuitive Predictions Life 3401,3,Nonregressive Intuitions 3401,h,grade point average 3401,h,201309100100@ (GPA)? People 3456,3,A Correction for Intuitive Predictions 3492,3,A Defense of Extreme Predictions? 3547,3,A Two-Systems View of Regression 3565,3,Speaking of Intuitive Predictions 3602,1,Part 3 Overconfidence 19 3638,h,@ 19 The Illusion of Understanding 3675,h,201309100100@ Of course there was a great deal of skill in the Google story, but luck played a more important role in the actual event than it does in the telling of it. And the more luck was involved, the less there is to be learned. 3675,h,201309100100@ Some people thought well in advance that there would be a crisis, but they did not know it. They now say they knew it because the crisis did in fact happen. 3693,h,201309100100@ In common usage, the words intuition and premonition also are reserved for past thoughts that turned out to be true. 3693,h,@ The Social Costs of Hindsight 3711,h,The tendency to revise the history of one's beliefs in light of what actually happened produces a robust cognitive illusion. 3730,h,201309100100@ Recipes for Success 3748,w,chief executive officer 3748,w,CEO 3766,h,it seems almost absurd to call a successful leader rigid and confused, or a struggling leader flexible and methodical. 3766,h,Because of the halo effect, we 3766,h,201309100100@ rigid, when the truth is that the CEO appears to be rigid because the firm is failing. This is how illusion 3785,w,takautuminen 3785,h,201309100100@ regression to 3803,3,Speaking of Hindsight 3821,2,20 The Illusion of Validity System to O n1 s of understanding are born. The d reliably from observations of success. 3821,3,The Illusion of Validity 3876,3,The Illusion of Stock-Picking Skill 3894,b,201309111230 3949,3,What Supports the Illusions of Skill and Validity? 3967,h,key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the price of its stock. Traders apparently lack the skill to answer this crucial question, but they appear to be ignorant of their ignorance. 3986,3,The Illusions of Pundits 3986,h,As Nassim Taleb pointed out in The Black Swan, our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability. 3986,h,The idea that large historical events are determined by luck is profoundly shocking, although it is demonstrably true. 3986,w,pundits: 4004,h,In other words, people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing evenly over the options. monkeys who would have distributed their choices 4004:,h,Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often less reliable. The reason is that the person who acquires more knowledge develops an enhanced illusion of her skill and 4022,h, It is Not the Experts' Fault— The World is Difficult 4022,h, The first lesson is that errors of prediction are inevitable because the world is unpredictable. 4041,3,Speaking of Illusory Skill 4059,2,21 Intuitions vs. Formulas Paul 4132,h,Dawes showed that marital stability is well predicted by a formula,h,frequency of lovemaking minus frequency of quarrels 4150,h,Apgar jotted down five variables (heart rate, respiration, reflex, muscle tone, and color) and three scores (0, 1, or 2, depending on the robustness of each sign). 4150,h, The Hostility to Algorithms 4169,h,The problem is that the correct judgments involve short-term predictions in the context of the therapeutic interview, a skill in which therapists may have years of practice. The tasks at which they fail typically require long-term predictions about t... 4187,3,Learning from Meehl 4223,h,The sum of our six ratings predicted soldiers' performance much more accurately than the global evaluations of the previous interviewing method, although far from perfectly. We had progressed from "completely useless" to "moderately useful." 4242,3,Do It Yourself 4260,3,Speaking of Judges vs. Formulas 4278,2,22 Expert Intuition,h,When Can We Trust It? Professional 4297,3,Marvels and Flaws 4297,w,kouros. 4315,3,Intuition as Recognition 4333,h,provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition." 4333,3,Acquiring Skill 4333,w,throes,h,throes plural n. intense or violent pain and struggle, esp. accompanying birth, death, or great change,h,he convulsed in his death throes. in the throes of in the middle of doing or dealing with something very difficult or painful,h,a friend was in the throes of a divorce. Middle English throwe (singular); perhaps related to Old English , thrawu 'calamity', influenced by 'suffer'. 4370,3,The Environment of Skill 4370,h,true experts know the limits of their knowledge. 4406,h, Expertise is not a single skill; it is a collection of skills. 4425,h,term anticipation and long-term forecasting are different tasks, and the therapist has had adequate Page 242 - hd3:opportunity to learn one but not the other. 4425,h,Evaluating Validity 4443,h,bogus,h,bo·gus adj. not genuine or true; fake,h,a bogus insurance claim. bo·gus·ly adv. bo·gus·ness n. late 18th cent. (originally U.S., denoting a machine for making counterfeit money),h,of unknown origin. 4479,h,23 The Outside View A 4516,3,Drawn to the Inside View 4553,h,20130912@ It is noteworthy, however, that we did not feel we needed information about other teams to make our guesses. My request for the outside view surprised all of us, including me! This is a common pattern,h,people who have information about an individual... hgl: 4553,h,20130912@ The Planning Fallacy 4571,h,20130912@ planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases 251 4589,h,20130912@ Mitigating the Planning Fallacy 252 4607,h,20130912@ Decisions and Errors 253 4626,h,20130912@ Failing a Test 4644,3,Speaking of the Outside View 4644,b,20130912 4662,2,24 The Engine of Capitalism The 4662,3,Optimists 4680,3,Entrepreneurial Delusions 4699,h,The evidence suggests that optimism is widespread, stubborn, and costly. 258 4717,h,20130912@ CEO=Chief Executing Officer CEO are 4735,3,Competition Neglect 4754,h,The upshot is that people tend to be overly optimistic about their 4754,w,Hubris,h,hu·bris n. excessive pride or self-confidence. (in Greek tragedy) excessive pride toward or defiance of the gods, leading to nemesis. hu·bris·tic adj. Greek. 4772,3,Overconfidence 4772,w,CFO Chief Financing Officer? CFO 4790,h,Overconfidence is another manifestation of WYSIATI,h,when we estimate a quantity, we rely on information that comes to mind 4790,h,President Truman famously asked for a "one-armed 262 4790,h,20130912@ economist" who would take a clear stand; he was sick and tired of economists who kept saying, "On the other hand..." Organizations 264 4827,h,20130912@ The Premortem,h,A Partial Remedy 4845,h,The main virtue of the premortem is that it legitimizes doubts 4845,3,Speaking of Optimism 4882,1,Part 4 Choices 25 4918,2,25 Bernoulli's Errors One 4918,h,Bruno Frey barely recalls writing the piece, but I can still recite its first sentence,h,'The agent of economic theory is rational, selfish, and his tastes do not change." 4918,h,Unlike Econs, the Humans that psychologists know have a System 1. Their view 4936,w,ostensibly 4973,3,Bernoulli's Error 5064,b,201309130208 5083,2,26 Prospect Theory 5083,h,Harry Markowitz, who would later earn the Nobel Prize for his work on finance, had proposed a theory in which utilities were attached to changes of wealth rather than to states of wealth. 5101,h,Problem 1,h,Which do you choose? Get $ 900 for sure OR 90% chance to get $ 1,000 Problem 2,h,Which do you choose? 5138,h,In Bernoulli's theory you need to know only the state of wealth to determine its utility, but in prospect theory you also need to know the reference state. Prospect theory is therefore more complex than utility theory. 5156,h,Put ice water into the left-hand bowl and warm water into the right-hand bowl. The water in the middle bowl should be at room temperature. Immerse your hands in the cold and warm water for about a minute, then dip both in the middle bowl. You will ex... 5156,b,201309180829 283 5174,h,201309180829@ fig:Figure 10 5174,3,Loss 5192,h,For most people, the fear of losing $ 100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $ 150. We concluded from many such observations that "losses 5229,3,Blind Spots of Prospect Theory 5266,3,Speaking of Prospect Theory 5266,b,201309140931 5284,2,27 The Endowment Effect You 5284,h,201309180829@ fig:Figure 11 5302,h,Each "indifference 5302,h,curve" connects the combinations of the two goods that are equally desirable— they The curves would turn into parallel straight lines if people were willing to "sell" vacation days for extra income at the same price regardless of how much income and how much vacation time they have. The convex shape indicates diminishing marginal u... 5302,h,All locations on an indifference curve are equally attractive. This is literally what indifference means,h,you don't care where you are on an indifference curve. 5302,h,Here again, the power and elegance of a theoretical model have blinded 5302,h,The omission of the reference point from the indifference map is a surprising case of theory-induced blindness, because we so often encounter cases in which the reference point obviously matters. In labor negotiations, it is well understood by both 5339,h,The Endowment Effect 5375,h,Other goods, such as wine and Super Bowl tickets, are held "for use," to be consumed or otherwise enjoyed. Your leisure time and the standard of living that your income supports are also not intended for sale or exchange. Knetsch, 5394,h,The results were dramatic,h,the average selling price was about double the average buying price, and the estimated number of trades was less than half of the number predicted by standard theory. 5394,b,201309180829 5430,3,Thinking Like a Trader 5448,w,endowment,h,en·dow·ment n. the action of endowing something or someone,h,he tried to promote the endowment of a Chair of Psychiatry. - an income or form of property given or bequeathed to someone. - (usu. endowments) a quality or ability possessed or inherited by someone. - [usu. as adj.] a form of life insurance involving payment of a fixed sum to the insured person on a specified date, or to their estate should they die before this date,h,an endowment policy. 5448,h,People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between gaining and giving up. 5467,3,Speaking of the Endowment Effect 5467,h,'These negotiations are going nowhere because both sides find it difficult to make concessions, even w 5467,b,201309171029 5485,1,28 Bad Events The 5485,3,Negativity Dominance 5485,h,201309180829@ fig:Figure 12 5522,h,We all know that a friendship that may take years to develop can be ruined by a single action. 5522,3,Goals are Reference Points 5522,h,strength of two motives,h,we are driven more strongly to avoid losses than to achieve gains. 5558,3,Defending the Status Quo 5576,h,Animals, including people , fight harder to prevent losses than to achieve gains. 5576,3,Loss Aversion in the Law 5595,w,overarching,h,o·ver·arch·ing adj. [attrib.] forming an arch over something,h,the overarching mangroves. comprehensive; all-embracing,h,a single overarching principle. 5650,3,Speaking of Losses 5650,b,201309180243 5668,2,29 The Fourfold Pattern 5668,3,Changing Chances 5704,3,Alias's Paradox 5741,h, 201309180829@ Decision Weights 5759,h,201309180829@ ta,b,able 4 5777,3,The Fourfold Pattern 5777,h,201309180829@ fig:Figure 13 5832,3,Gambling in the Shadow of the Law 5832,h,The plaintiff with a strong case is likely to be risk averse. 5851,h,201309180829@ If the city litigates all 200 cases, it will lose 10, for a total loss of $ 10 million. If the city settles every case for $ 100,000, its total loss will be $ 20 million. 5869,3,Speaking of the Fourfold Pattern 5869,h,"We never let our vacations hang on a last-minute deal. We're willing to pay a lot for certainty." 5869,h,"They know the risk of a gas explosion is minuscule, but they want it mitigated. It's a possibility effect, and they want peace of mind." 5869,b,201309180829 5887,2,30 Rare Events 5905,3,Overestimation and Overweighting 5960,3,Vivid Outcomes 5997,3,Vivid Probabilities 6052,h, 201309180829@ Decisions from Global Impressions 6088,3,Speaking of Rare Events 6088,h,"We shouldn't focus on a single scenario, or we will overestimate its probability. Lets set up specific alternatives and make the probabilities add up to 100%." 6107,2,31 Risk Policies Imagine 6125,3,Broad or Narrow? 6143,3,Samuelson's Problem 6216,w,kirnuta? churning,h,o·ver·arch·ing adj. [attrib.] forming an arch over something,h,the overarching mangroves. comprehensive; all-embracing,h,a single overarching principle. 6216,3,Risk Policies 6235,3,Speaking of Risk Policies 6235,b,201309190624 6253,2,32 Keeping Score 6253,3,Mental Accounts 6271,w,blizzard,h,bliz·zard n. a severe snowstorm with high winds and low visibility. FIGURATIVE an overabundance; a deluge,h,a blizzard of legal forms. early 19th cent. (originally U.S., denoting a violent blow),h,of unknown origin. 6289,h,The disposition effect is an instance of narrow framing. 6308,h,sunk-cost fallacy. 6326,3,Regret 6381,h,201309200826@ Responsibility 6417,h,especially strong in Europe, where the precautionary principle, which prohibits any action that might cause harm, is a widely accepted doctrine. 6436,3,Speaking of Keeping Score 6454,2,33 Reversals You 6472,3,Challenging Economics 6509,3,Categories 6582,3,Unjust Reversals 6619,3,Speaking of Reversals 6637,2,34 Frames and Reality Italy 6655,3,Emotional Framing 6655,h,people will more readily forgo a discount than pay a surcharge. The two may be economically equivalent, but they are not emotionally equivalent. 365 6673,h,201309200826@ fig:Figure 14 6728,3,Empty Intuitions 6747,h,Like other people, these professionals were susceptible to the framing effects. It is somewhat worrying that the officials who make decisions that affect everyone's health can be swayed by such a superficial manipulation— but we must get used to the ... 6747,h,Saving lives with certainty is good, deaths are bad. Most people find that their System 2 has no moral intuitions of its own to answer the question. 6747,h,Should the child exemption be larger for the rich than for the poor? Your own intuitions are very likely the same as those of Schelling's students,h,they found the idea of favoring the rich by a larger exemption completely unacceptable. 6783,3,Good Frames 6820,h,These enormous differences are a framing effect, which is caused by the format of the critical question. The high-donation countries have an opt out form, where individuals who wish not to donate must check an appropriate box. Unless they take this s... 6838,h,As we have seen again and again, an important choice is controlled by an utterly inconsequential feature of the situation. This is embarrassing— it is not how we would wish to make important 6838,h, 201309200826@ Skeptics about rationality are not surprised . They are trained to be sensitive to the power of inconsequential factors as determinants of preference— my hope is that readers of this book have acquired this sensitivity. 6838,3,Speaking of Frames and Reality 6856,1,Part 5 Two Selves 35 6893,2,35 Two Selves The 6911,3,Experienced Utility 6911,h,My fascination with the possible discrepancies between experienced utility and decision utility goes back a long way. 6911,3,Experience and Memory 6911,h,Experienced utility would vary, much as daily temperature or barometric pressure do, and the re 6948,h,201309260210@ fig:Figure 15 6966,w,bliss,h,bliss n. perfect happiness; great joy,h,she gave a sigh of bliss. See note at RAPTURE. - something providing such happiness,h,the steam room was bliss. - a state of spiritual blessedness, typically that reached after death. bliss out [often as adj.] (blissed out) INFORMAL reach a state of perfect happiness, typically so as to be oblivious of everything else,h,blissed-out hippies. Old English , bliss, of Germanic origin; related to BLITHE. 6966,3,Which Self Should Count? 7021,3,Biology vs. Rationality 7021,h,Decisions that do not produce the best possible experience and erroneous forecasts of future feelings— both are bad news for believers in the rationality of choice. 7039,h,A memory that neglects duration will not serve our preference for long pleasure and short pains. 7039,3,Speaking of Two Selves 7039,h,A divorce is like a symphony with a screeching sound at the end— the fact that it ended badly does not mean it was all bad." 7039,b,201309211716 7057,2,36 Life as a Story 7094,3,Amnesic Vacations 7112,h,the elimination of memories greatly reduces the 7130,3,Speaking of Life as a Story 7130,b,201309220737 7149,2,37 Experienced Well-Being 7149,h,I was naturally suspicious of global satisfaction with life as a valid measure of well-being. As the remembering self had not proved to be a good witness in my experiments, I focused on the wellbeing of the experiencing self. 7167,3,Experienced Well-Being 7185,h,Although positive 7204,h, 201309260210@ temperament, or the misfortunes and personal tragedies in their life. A 7240,h, 201309260210@ Can money buy happiness? The conclusion is that being poor makes one miserable, and that being rich may enhance one's life satisfaction, but does not (on average) improve experienced well-being. 7258,3,Speaking of Experienced Well-Being 7258,b,201309230535 7277,2,38 Thinking About Life Figure 7277,h, 201309260210@ fig:Figure 16 7350,3,The Focusing Illusion 7350,h,Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it. 7386,h, 201309260210@ "How much pleasure do you get from your car when you think about it?" 7386,h,If you have been there all your life and do not travel much, living in California is like having ten to 7423,w,colostomy,h,co·los·to·my n. (pl. -mies) a surgical operation in which a piece of the colon is diverted to an artificial opening in the abdominal wall so as to bypass a damaged part of the colon. an opening so formed,h,[as adj.] a colostomy bag. late 19th cent.,h,from COLON2 + Greek stoma 'mouth'. 7423,3,Time and Time Again 7441,3,Speaking of Thinking About Life 7460,h, 201309260210@ Two Selves Kopioitu leikepoydalie 7478,h,The central fact of our existence is that time is the ultimate finite resource, but the remembering self ignores that reality. 7496,h,For example, an hour spent practicing the violin may enhance the experience of many hours of playing or listening to music years later. 7496,h,It is now conceivable , as it was not even a few years ago, that an index of the amount of suffering in society will someday be included in national statistics, along with measures of unemployment, physical disability, and income. This project has c... 7514,3,Econs and Humans 7514,h,The only test of rationality is not whether a person's beliefs and preferences are reasonable, but whether they are internally consistent. 411 7514,h,201309260210@ An Econ would not be susceptible to priming, WYSIATI, narrow framing, the inside view, or preference reversals, which Humans cannot consistently avoid. 7514,h,Rational people should be free, and they should be responsible for taking care of themselves. Milton Friedman, the leading figure in that school, expressed this view in the title of one of his popular books,h,Free to Choose. 7533,w,obesity,h,o·bese adj. grossly fat or overweight. o·be·si·ty n. mid 17th cent.,h,from Latin obesus 'having eaten until fat', from ob- 'away, completely' + esus (past participle of edere 'eat'). 7533,h,Much is therefore at stake in the debate between the Chicago school and the behavioral economists, who reject the extreme form of the rational-agent model. 7533,h,The decision of whether or not to protect individuals against their mistakes therefore presents a dilemma for behavioral economists. The economists of the Chicago school do not face that problem, because rational agents do not make mistakes. For adhe... 7588,3,Two Systems 7588,h,uneasy interaction between two fictitious characters,h,the automatic System 1 and the effortful System 2. 7588,b,201309260210 7606,h,System 7606,h,201309260210@ 1 is indeed the origin of much that we do wrong, but it is also the origin of most of what we do right— which is most of what we do. Our 7642,h, 201309260210@ the voices of present gossipers and future critics than to hear the hesitant voice of their own doubts. They will make better choices when they trust their critics to be sophisticated and fair, and when they expect their decision to be judged by how... 7642,b,201309230752 7661,2,Appendix A,h,Judgment Under Uncertainty,h,Heuristics and Biases * Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 7661,3,hgl:201309260210 7661,h, 201309260210@ sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors. The 7679,3,Representativeness 7679,4,Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes 7679,h,Specifically, it can be shown by applying Bayes' rule that the ratio of these odds should be (. 7/. 3) 2, or 5.44, for each description 7697,4,Insensitivity to sample size. 7716,h,In contrast, sampling theory entails that the expected number of days on which more than 60% of the babies are boys is much greater in the small hospital than in the large one, because a large sample is less likely to stray from 50%. This fundamental... 7716,h, 201309260210@ valid hypothesis about a population will be represented by a statistically significant result in a sample with little regard for its size. 7734,4,Insensitivity to predictability. 7734,4,The illusion of validity. 7752,4,Misconceptions of regression. 7752,h,First, they do not expect regression in many contexts where it is bound to 7770,3,Availability 7770,4,Biases due to the retrievability of instances. 7770,4,Biases due to the effectiveness of a search set. 7789,4,Biases of imaginability. 7789,4,Illusory correlation. 7807,3,Adjustment and Anchoring 7807,4,Insufficient adjustment. 7825,4,Biases in the evaluation of conjunctive and disjunctive events. 7825,4,Anchoring in the assessment of subjective probability distributions. 7862,3,Discussion 7862,h,The reliance on heuristics and the prevalence of biases are not 7862,h,201309260210@ Statistical principles are not 7880,b,201309251051 7898,h,201309251051@ s 7898,b,20139251052 7917,2,052 Appendix B,h,Choices, Values, And Frames * Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 7917,3,hgl:201309260210 433 7917,h,201309260210@ The relation between decision values and experience values is discussed. 7917,b,201309260210 7935,3,Discuss the cognitive and the psychophysical 434 7935,h,201309260210@ The preference for the sure gain is an instance of risk aversion. 435 7953,h,201309260210@ fig:Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Function 7971,3,Framing of Outcomes 8008,3,Kopioitu leikepoydalle 8008,h,201309260210@ The Psychophysics of Chances 8063,3,Formulation Effects 8063,3,Transactions and Trades 8118,3,Losses and Costs 8136,h,The owner of a store, for example, does not experience money paid to suppliers as losses and money received from customers as gains. Instead, the merchant adds costs and revenues over some period of time and only evaluates the balance. 8154,h,201309260210@ Concluding Remarks 8154,h,201309260210@ For example, the framing of outcomes of therapies for lung cancer in terms of mortality or survival is unlikely to affect experience, although it can have a pronounced influence on choice. 8173,h,201309260210@ References 8191,h,201309260210@ Also by Daniel Kahneman 8191,h,201309252114@ Acknowledgments I 8191,b,201309252116 8209,h,201309252116@ s Introduction 8209,3,Introduction 8227,3,1,h,The Characters of the Story 8227,3,2,h,Attention and Effort 8264,h,201309260210@ 3,h,The Lazy Controller 8282,h,201309260210@ 4,h,The Associative Machine 8301,h,201309260210@ 5,h,Cognitive Ease 8337,h,201309260210@ 6,h,Norms, Surprises, and Causes 8337,h,201309260210@ 7,h,A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8355,h,201309260210@ 8,h,Howjudgments Happen 8355,h,201309260210@ 9,h,Answering an Easier Question 8374,h,201309260210@ 10,h,The Law of Small Numbers 8392,h,201309260210@ 11,h,Anchors 8392,h,201309260210@ 12,h,The Science of Availability 8410,3,13,h,Availability, Emotion, and Risk 8429,3,14,h,Tom Ws Specialty 8429,3,15,h,Linda,h,Less is More 8447,3,16,h,Causes Trump Statistics 8447,3,17,h,Regression to the Mean 8465,3,18,h,Taming Intuitive Predictions 8465,3,19,h,The Illusion of Understanding 8483,3,20,h,The Illusion of Validity 8502,3,21,h,Intuitions vs. Formulas 8502,3,22,h,Expert Intuition,h,When Can We Trust It? 8520,3,23,h,The Outside View 8538,2,24,h,The Engine of Capitalism 8557,3,25,h,Bernoulli’s Errors 8575,h,201309260210@ 26,h,Prospect Theory 8593,h,201309260210@ 27,h,The Endowment Effect 8630,h,201309260210@ 28,h,Bad Events 8648,h,201309260210@ 29,h,The Fourfold Pattern 8666,h,201309260210@ 30,h,Rare Events hd3: 8666,h,201309260210@ 31,h,Risk Policies 8685,3,32,h,Keeping Score 8703,3,33,h,Reversals 8721,3,34,h,Frames and Reality 8721,h,201309260210@ 35,h,Two Selves 8739,3,36,h,Life as a Story 8739,3,37,h,Experienced Well-Being 8758,3,38,h,Thinking About Life 8739,h,201309260210@ 37,h,Experienced Well-Being 8758,3,38,h,Thinking About Life 8776,3,Conclusions 8849,b,201309260210 8867,h,201309260210@ Index The 9362,h,201309260210@ 1984. ### en 006 Thinking, Fast and Slow Offered by Macmillan Price,h,$2.99, October 4, 2013 5.0 out of 5 stars #eng My first psychology book This review is from,h,Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kindle Edition) rev:201310050610 With pleasure I return to this text in order to write a short summary in the spirit of the idea that it can be nicely joined as the last Note of the Kindle book and thus included in Notes, Highlights and Bookmarks file which follows every Kindle book and is any time available for the reader. Unfortunately only to be looked at, but not handled as a whole. This handicap can be overcome easily by screen shots. So, why does not Amazon allow it to be directly downloaded for the benefit of the reader for easier use as source material anywhere. But returning to this stunning book I am in lack of sufficient overwords. I do not remember that I would ever have read any psychology book before. So I have read it as a complete layman, but had no difficulty at all understanding every passage of it. As a matter of fact the book is not only psychology, but a lucid presentation of the methods of psychology, common to all behavioral sciences, so to me as economist, too. This book has no side walks, but is the story of thinking, fast and slow, just as the cover tells. These two concepts I meet first time ever, but they are clearly defined so that even a layman dares to paraphrase them as effortless thinking and thinking with effort. Kahneman is a nobelist in just economics and well deserves it. Good thinking is also a matter of economics. That is compöetely clear. Another brilliant concept, which I meet first time here in this book, although it belongs outright to the central concepts of economics as well,h,WYSIATI - What You See Is All There Is. Do not smile, it is a serious term, not at all expressing something superficial, but is a profound characterization of human behavior. Kahnemans presentation is completely based on experience and well organized simple experiments of how we think and decide things. And he does not at all hoist his own profile, but continuously refers to colleagues, quite especially beautifully to his defunt partner with words 'Amos and I'. You get the impression that if Amos Tversky had lived, he would have stepped side by side with the author to the podium of honor in Stockholm. So there is no doubt of five stars for one of the best nonfiction books I ever have read. Already after having read a few pages I ordered a copy for my daughter, a professional psychologist. With keen interes I wait her comments.